Hand evaluation beyond high-card points
So, the rules to take away. One: honours are worth most in long suits and least in short ones. Two: the Rule of Twenty for opening borderline hands. Three: re-value your hand after every bid. Four: add dummy points only once you have a fit. And five: once you have a fit, count your losers.
Transcript
Tom Helen, I have a confession. Last Tuesday I opened a hand with thirteen points, partner raised me to game, and we went down three.
Helen Let me guess. Queens and jacks everywhere, no long suit, and you were very proud of your thirteen.
Tom How did you know?
Helen Because everybody does it once. Some people do it every Tuesday for forty years.
Helen Welcome to Next Steps in Bridge, the podcast for people who've finished beginners' lessons and are now, technically, dangerous. I'm Helen. I've been playing for longer than I'll admit on a recording.
Tom And I'm Tom. I finished beginners' class six weeks ago, and I still sort my cards with my tongue slightly out.
Helen This is episode one: hand evaluation beyond high-card points. Or, as I like to call it, why thirteen points is a rumour, not a fact.
Tom Okay, but the points thing is all we were taught. Ace four, king three, queen two, jack one. Add them up, twelve or thirteen, open the bidding. It's lovely. It's simple.
Helen It's lovely, it's simple, and it's wrong about half the time. Points are a starting estimate. The real value of your hand changes with every bid you hear at the table.
Tom Give me an example, because I think in examples. Mostly bad ones.
Helen Picture two hands, both with exactly thirteen points. Hand A has ace, king, jack, seven, five of spades, and king, queen, ten, nine, two of hearts. Two fives. Every honour sits in a long suit.
Tom That sounds like a hand that wants to play the contract.
Helen It does. Now Hand B. Queen-jack-three of spades. Queen-jack-four of hearts. King-queen-five of diamonds. Queen, five, four, three of clubs.
Tom Oh no. That's the hand I had on Tuesday.
Helen Same thirteen points. But Hand A, opposite a partner with three spades and nothing else, can make ten tricks. Hand B struggles to make seven. Hand B's queens and jacks are what we call soft values. They look like points on paper, but they only take tricks when the opponents are being generous.
Tom And the opponents at my club are never generous. One of them brings her own pencil.
Helen So we nudge the count up or down. Here are the upgrades. First, honours together in a long suit. Ace-king-jack in a five-card suit is worth much more than the same cards scattered around.
Tom Because they take tricks together.
Helen Exactly. Second, good spot cards. Tens and nines, especially in no-trump. Third, a second five-card suit. Five-five hands play far better than their points suggest. Fourth, honours in a suit your right-hand opponent bid, because you sit over them. And fifth, shortness, but only once you've found a trump fit.
Tom And the downgrades?
Helen Unsupported honours in short suits. A singleton king. A doubleton queen-jack. Then the flat shape, four-three-three-three. Deduct a point for that; it's the saddest shape in bridge. Queens and jacks without aces and kings to help them. Honours in a suit your left-hand opponent bid, because they sit over you. And shortness in partner's suit, which is a misfit. We'll do a whole episode on misfits.
Tom Can I offer a rule? A king in a five-card suit is a trick. A singleton king is a hostage.
Helen That's annoyingly good, Tom. Write it on your hand.
Helen Next, the Rule of Twenty. This is for borderline hands, eleven or twelve points with some shape. Add your high-card points to the number of cards in your two longest suits. If the total is twenty or more, open at the one level.
Tom Do one.
Helen King, queen, ten, six, three of spades. Ace, jack, eight, five, two of hearts. A singleton diamond and two small clubs. That's ten points.
Tom Plus five spades plus five hearts. Twenty! I open one spade.
Helen You do. And enjoy the look on their faces. Now, queen-eight-three of spades, king-seven-two of hearts, queen-jack-five of diamonds, queen-jack-four-two of clubs.
Tom Eleven points. Plus four clubs, plus three of something. Eighteen. So I pass?
Helen You pass, and you feel smug when partner opens. The rule works because shape takes tricks. One footnote: in fourth seat, many people use the Rule of Fifteen instead. Points plus number of spades. Fifteen or more, open. Otherwise, pass the hand out and go and get a biscuit.
Tom I like any rule that ends with a biscuit.
Helen Now the most important idea in this episode. Your hand is not a fixed asset, like a house. It's more like a share price, and partner's bids are the quarterly results.
Tom So I re-value every time partner bids.
Helen Yes. Take king, ten, eight, four of spades, a singleton heart, ace-queen-seven-three of diamonds, and jack-nine-four-two of clubs. Ten points. If partner opens one spade, what's your hand worth?
Tom I've got four spades, and a singleton heart. So I can ruff hearts. It feels a lot better.
Helen About thirteen. You're thinking game. Now partner opens one heart instead.
Tom Ugh. My singleton is in partner's suit.
Helen About nine. You respond one spade and keep your expectations modest.
Tom Like a man on his fourth dating app.
Helen I'll take your word for it. That's where dummy points come in. Once you've found a fit and you're going to be dummy, add for shortness. With four or more trumps, a void is five, a singleton three, a doubleton one. With only three trumps, void three, singleton two, doubleton one.
Helen Last big idea: the Losing Trick Count. Once you've found an eight-card fit, you count losers suit by suit.
Tom Talk me through the counting, slowly. Pretend I'm me.
Helen Look only at the top three cards in each suit. In a suit of three or more cards, the ace, king and queen each cancel a loser. In a doubleton, only the ace and king count. In a singleton, only the ace. Every other top card is a loser.
Tom So a void is no losers. A singleton is one, unless it's the ace.
Helen Right. Then add your losers to partner's. A minimum opening hand has about seven. Subtract the total from twenty-four, and that's how many tricks your side should make.
Tom Twenty-four. Why twenty-four?
Helen Because it works, Tom. Don't ask a magician to explain the trick. Let's do one. Partner opens one spade. You hold king-nine-five-two of spades, ace-four of hearts, king-eight-six-five-three of diamonds, and seven-six of clubs.
Tom Spades. King-nine-five. The king counts, the nine and five don't. Two losers. Hearts, ace-four. One loser. Diamonds, king-eight-six. Two losers. Clubs, seven-six. Two losers. Seven altogether.
Helen Partner has seven, you have seven. Fourteen. Twenty-four minus fourteen?
Tom Ten tricks. So I bid game. With only ten points!
Helen A pure point-counter would invite. The Losing Trick Count sees four trumps and two doubletons and calls you a coward. A rough guide for raising partner's major: nine losers, raise to two. Eight losers, raise to three. Seven losers, bid game.
Tom Any health warnings?
Helen One. The Losing Trick Count is optimistic about wild hands with no high cards. Use it to adjust your points, not to replace them. And if the two methods disagree by a lot, split the difference and blame partner.
Helen Quiz time. You're in first seat. You hold ace, queen, ten, seven, six of spades, king, jack, nine, eight, five of hearts, a singleton diamond, and two small clubs. Open or pass?
Tom Ten points, plus five, plus five. Twenty. I open one spade.
Helen Correct. With five-five, open the higher-ranking suit. Second question. Your left-hand opponent opened one heart, and you hold king-jack-four of hearts. Upgrade or downgrade?
Tom Downgrade. They probably hold the ace and queen, and they play after me, so my king and jack are sitting underneath them.
Helen Six weeks, and he's already explaining it to me.
Helen So, the rules to take away. One: honours are worth most in long suits and least in short ones. Two: the Rule of Twenty for opening borderline hands. Three: re-value your hand after every bid. Four: add dummy points only once you have a fit. And five: once you have a fit, count your losers.
Tom And homework?
Helen At the club this week, write down three hands where you upgraded or downgraded. Check the hand record afterwards to see if you were right. And count your losers on every hand you play as declarer.
Tom Next time, competitive bidding. Helen says we are going to stop letting the opponents bid in peace.
Helen Most deals are contested, so it is the episode that will change your scores the most. Thanks for listening to Next Steps in Bridge. The full lesson, with pictures of every hand, is on the course page.
Tom See you at the table. Bring a biscuit.